The death or departure from power of russian president vladimir putin will not mean the end of the war or rapid changes in russia. On the contrary, the country may be engulfed in an internal struggle of the elites, and the new head of state may turn out to be even more aggressive.
This is stated in the analytical material of Newsweek.
The article notes that the russian system of power is built around security forces, special services and groups close to the Kremlin. Amid economic problems and the war against Ukraine, tensions are growing between the elites.
According to the publication, American intelligence records conflicts between the FSB, the Rosgvardia, and the Federal Security Service due to the struggle for influence and control over the security system.
The authors pay special attention to Sergei Shoigu's entourage. Analysts regard the arrest of former Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov in March 2026 as a sign of internal struggle among russian security forces.
Among the possible contenders for power in russia, Newsweek names presidential aide Aleksey Dyumin, first deputy head of the presidential administration Sergey Kiriyenko, and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev.
The authors also estimate that representatives of the older generation of security forces, in particular FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, may retain significant influence.
The article emphasizes that most of vladimir putin's potential successors share his anti-Western and imperial views. Therefore, one should not expect a quick end to the war or the return of the occupied territories to Ukraine.
According to the Constitution of the russian federation, after the death of the president, his duties would be temporarily performed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. However, the real struggle for power, according to the authors, will be waged between various clans, security forces and influence groups close to the Kremlin.
The article also cites an assessment by the Harvard Kennedy School, according to which russia's losses in the war - killed and wounded - could reach 1 million people as of February 2026.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War also warn of the risks associated with the return from the front of hundreds of thousands of veterans, as well as pardoned prisoners who participated in the fighting.
The authors of the material conclude: even after the death of vladimir putin, the system of power in russia itself may be preserved, and the struggle for control over the nuclear state will create new risks for Europe.
Recall, the US has acknowledged that putin is supporting Iran's military actions.
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