The National Bank has revised its inflation forecast downward from 7.5% to 9.4% for 2026.
This is stated in NBU data, according to the Ukrainian News agency.
Inflation slowed steadily from June 2025 to January 2026, but subsequently began to rise. Price pressures intensified due to the difficult situation in the energy sector following russian shelling, a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the war in the Middle East, the effects of the hryvnia’s depreciation in previous periods, as well as faster-than-expected wage growth.
In March, inflation accelerated to 7.9% y/y, and core inflation to 7.1%. Both figures exceeded the NBU’s previous forecast (Inflation Report, January 2026). According to the NBU’s estimates, inflation continued to rise in April. At the same time, inflation expectations among most respondent groups remained stable, and public expectations improved in April after deteriorating in the first quarter, returning to the level seen at the end of last year.
In the coming months, inflation will remain near current levels but will accelerate in the second half of the year (to 9.4% by year-end) due to increased pressure on firms’ production costs, primarily as a result of the rise in energy prices that has already occurred. The rise in fuel prices will be reflected in inflation both directly and through secondary effects, which will impact the price dynamics of various goods and services with a certain time lag.
Inflation will return to a steady downward trajectory in 2027. This will be facilitated by the waning effects of high fuel prices, a reduction in external price pressures, a gradual increase in crop yields, and an improvement in the energy sector. The NBU’s monetary policy measures will also have a significant impact. As a result, inflation will slow to 6.5% by the end of 2027 and to the 5% target in 2028.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, consumer prices rose by 1.7% in March 2026.
In January–March 2026, inflation stood at 3.4%.
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