China and russia may become rivals in 2030s - intelligence report

China and russia, the aggressor state, may shift from their current partnership to a competitive relationship in the 2030s due to diverging strategic interests. This is stated in a report by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS).

"Against the backdrop of the weakening of US influence in the Eastern Hemisphere and the transformation of the global order, Moscow and Beijing will lose their status as situational allies. Their long-term goals differ: Russia is focused on forming its own pan-region, while China seeks global dominance. This creates the conditions for competition over resources, territories, and allies," the statement reads.

The report notes that tensions may escalate amid the redistribution of influence in Asia. Specifically, this concerns the Korean Peninsula, Vietnam, and other countries in the region that may fall within Russia’s sphere of interest. An additional factor will be the growing number of countries seeking to avoid choosing between China and anti-China alliances, which will limit Beijing’s options.

At the same time, experts believe that by the 2030s, russia’s population will have shrunk significantly, and its economy will be exhausted by the war against Ukraine; thus, despite the government’s ambitions, China will not view russia as a competitor at all.

"Currently, it is in Russia’s interest to maintain a balance between the US and China without either side gaining a decisive advantage, in order to preserve its own position within the new geopolitical configuration. Economic cooperation between the countries continues to grow, but in the long term, this does not guarantee a stable strategic alliance," the FIS emphasizes.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, according to intelligence data, the aggressor country, the russian federation, is facing a catastrophic shortage in light aviation.

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