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Market reacts to upcoming blockade of Iran, oil back over USD 100

Oil. Photo: Reuters
Oil. Photo: Reuters

On Monday, April 13, oil prices rose sharply, exceeding USD 100 per barrel, as the United States prepares to block maritime traffic related to Iran.

The enkorr.ua edition writes about this with reference to Reuters.

The report says that as of 8:25 a.m. Kyiv time, Brent futures jumped by USD 6.99 (+7.3%) to USD 102.19/bbl, while WTI rose by USD 8.14 (+8.4%) to USD 104.71/bbl.

The growth occurred after unsuccessful negotiations between Washington and Tehran to end the war.

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Thus, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would begin blocking ships entering or leaving Iranian ports.

This is a de facto restriction on Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global supplies.

According to analysts, up to 2 million bpd of Iranian flows are at risk.

"The market has actually returned to pre-ceasefire conditions, but with the additional factor of the blockade," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

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The US Central Command said that the blockade will take effect from 10:00 a.m. ET and will apply to all ships heading to or leaving Iranian ports.

However, transit to ports of other countries through the Strait of Hormuz is not planned to be restricted.

In turn, Iran warned that any warships near the strait would be considered a violation of the truce and would receive a "decisive response."

Analysts note that the very fact of a possible blockade has already led to a reassessment of risks in the market.

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"The return of triple-digit prices looks justified amid the growing geopolitical premium," said Priyanka Sachdev, senior analyst at Phillip Nova.

At the same time, according to ship tracking data, some tankers are already avoiding the Strait of Hormuz ahead of possible restrictions.

Against this background, Saudi Arabia announced the restoration of the full capacity of the East-West oil pipeline - about 7 million barrels per day, which can partially offset the risks of disruptions in the region.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, oil futures ended lower on Friday and recorded the biggest weekly drop since 2022 amid expectations of talks between the US and Iran on a possible long-term truce.

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