The actual rates of general and core inflation exceeded the forecast of the National Bank, published in the January 2026 Inflation Report.
This is stated in the report of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency informs.
The main factor was the rise in fuel prices amid the war in the Middle East and rising world oil prices. This, in particular, led to an increase in the cost of transportation services.
Fuel inflation accelerated sharply to 23.4% year over year.
This trend reflected a significant increase in the price of petroleum products and gas due to the outbreak of war in the Middle East.
The growth rate of administratively regulated prices slowed down to 8.6% year over year.
Administrative inflation slowed in March, but was slightly higher than forecast. The main factor behind the deviation was a rise in the cost of travel in urban route, suburban, and intercity transport, caused primarily by a rapid rise in fuel prices.
The annual growth rate of raw food prices also slowed to 8.4% year over year.
In March, the growth in raw food prices slowed for the first time since the beginning of the year in annual terms. The growth rate of prices for pork and chicken continued to decline due to an increase in the supply of imported products. Borsch vegetables remained more than twice as cheap as last year due to the active sale of stocks from unequipped warehouses in the warm weather. Egg prices grew faster compared to February, but slower year-on-year due to a high comparison base. At the same time, buckwheat prices grew faster than expected due to a poor harvest.
Core inflation increased slightly to 7.1% year over year.
The growth in processed food prices accelerated slightly to 10.0% year over year. Sunflower oil grew faster due to price increases by processors amid a shortage of sunflower supply and rising global prices, while fish and seafood rose due to higher imports from the EU, higher fuel prices, and related energy costs. At the same time, the growth rate in prices for confectionery and soft drinks slowed, in part due to consistently lower sugar prices than last year.
Services inflation accelerated to 12.8%, in particular due to higher mobile phone tariffs amid a difficult situation in the energy sector. The high cost of electricity for businesses also led to higher prices for restaurants, cinemas, consumer services, etc. At the same time, rising fuel prices increased the cost of transportation services: taxis, freight transportation, service stations, and driver training.
The decline in prices for non-food goods continued (-0.5% year over year).
Inflation remained moderate, but exceeded the trajectory of the NBU's January forecast, primarily due to increased pressure on business production costs as a result of rising energy prices. These and other factors will be taken into account in the updated macroeconomic forecast, which will be published on April 30, 2026, during a press briefing following the decision of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine on monetary issues.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in March 2026, inflation accelerated to 7.9% year over year.
In the monthly measurement, prices increased by 1.7%.
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