Invading army forced to change its plans at front - ISW names priorities of RF

The russian troops give priority not to the defense in the Oleksandrivka Axis, where the Defense Forces are successfully attacking, but to offensive actions in the Huliaipole Axis and are sending reinforcements there, but still cannot achieve significant success.

This is stated in another daily report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, the russian command has concentrated its efforts in the area of ​​responsibility of the 5th Combined Arms Army, which operates west of Huliaipole. At the same time, the Oleksandrivka Axis, where the 29th and 36th armies of the russian federation operate, receives less attention, despite active counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Analysts noted that Ukrainian strikes in the Oleksandrivka Axis pose a threat to the russian group, which is trying to advance towards Orikhiv. However, Moscow probably considers this threat insufficient to change priorities and shift more forces to defense.

Despite the concentration of resources, russian troops have only managed to advance slightly near Huliaipole in recent days. At the same time, ISW records several advances by Ukrainian forces in this area.

Mashovets reported that units of the 40th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, the 39th and 38th Motorized Rifle Brigades were transferred to reinforce the russian 5th Army. Instead, the russians sent significantly fewer reinforcements to the direction of Oleksandrivka, in particular, separate units of the 120th Marine Division of the Baltic Fleet and the 69th Cover Brigade.

Separate russian units tried to counterattack in the area of O​leksandrivka and Sichneve, as well as to hold positions near Voskresenka. However, these actions did not yield results. Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the Pryluky-Varvarivka-Oleksandrivka area.

In addition, according to ISW, russia has begun to mobilize strategic reserves, but not for the main direction in the Donetsk Region. Instead, they are being transferred to the Zaporizhzhia Region, in particular near Huliaipole and Orikhiv, where the 5th and 58th armies of the russian federation are experiencing an acute shortage of forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the russian command has set itself a deadline: to capture Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026. At the same time, analysts believe that these plans are unrealistic: although the russians have mostly managed to take Pokrovsk, the capture of Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka within the specified time frame is unlikely.

ISW emphasizes that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka Axes disrupt russian plans in other areas of the front, in particular in the Pokrovsk area and the so-called "belt of fortresses" in the Donetsk Region.

These actions force the russian command to disperse forces and even transfer them from key areas, which complicates the implementation of the offensive in the spring-summer campaign of 2026, ISW writes.

Analysts emphasize: even the involvement of strategic reserves has not brought russia tactical successes so far. Moreover, Ukraine has forced the enemy to use these reserves far from its main goal - an attack on the fortified defense line in Donbas.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, 173 clashes were recorded on the russian-Ukrainian front over the past 24 hours.

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