Ukraine has relied on tactical, operational and strategic strikes on russian targets, creating "leverages of influence" in the war with russia. The chosen strategy has led to the fact that the current situation on the battlefield for Ukraine is the best in the last ten months.
And while Ukraine is achieving successes that may lead to strategic consequences, russia has stood on the threshold of long-term problems created for it by the Defense Forces.
This is stated in a new material from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts believe that Ukraine continues to create leverage against russia, carrying out tactical, operational and strategic strikes in the combat space.
Thus, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing intelligence data from Ukraine and the United Kingdom, stated on April 3: the current situation at the front line is the best for Ukraine in the last 10 months (since June 2025).
Zelenskyy also added that russian troops have so far taken advantage of poor visibility during fog to carry out attacks and infiltration missions. Under such conditions, ISW adds, Ukrainian drones could operate less effectively, and the occupiers had advantages in conducting ground operations. However, according to the Ukrainian President, the approach of spring weather with sunny days will make it more difficult for russian troops to advance unnoticed.
"Ukraine also achieved tactical and operational successes in late winter and early spring that could increasingly generate strategic consequences. Ukrainian forces began to achieve significant tactical successes in southern Ukraine in late January 2026, which created cascading operational consequences on the front and forced russian forces to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or distributing human resources and forces to other areas of the front. ISW previously estimated that Ukrainian counterattacks could even disrupt russian plans for the spring-summer 2026 offensive campaign," ISW shared its own assessment.
The analysts added that russian officials are not giving up on attempts to spread a false narrative that Ukrainian front lines are on the verge of collapse. Thus, Moscow tried to convince the West to capitulate to russian demands that russia cannot provide militarily.
"However, Ukraine's recent successes suggest that Ukraine is not in danger of collapse," the article says.
At the same time, Ukraine is increasing its capabilities to create long-term problems for the aggressor state.
"Ukraine's efforts in the field of technological innovation seem to be increasingly leading to operational consequences against russia," the ISW says.
According to Ukrainian estimates, using drones alone, the Defense Forces soldiers killed or seriously wounded 33,988 russian servicemen in March of this year. Ukrainian artillery and other strikes led to the elimination of another 1,363 occupiers.
And this is bad news for the russian federation, since since December of last year russia has been losing more soldiers on the battlefield than it has managed to recruit.
At the same time, the effectiveness of russian long-range strikes is also decreasing. According to estimates by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, in March, Ukrainian troops shot down or suppressed 89.9% of russian missiles and drones.
"These drone innovations increase the lethality of Ukrainian strikes and complicate russia's human resource challenges, which could lead to long-term operational and even strategic consequences for russian combat capabilities," ISW concluded.
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