According to Ukrainian intelligence, russia is increasing pressure on its businesses to raise additional funds to finance the war against Ukraine.
Measures that are presented as a fight against the shadow economy indicate a growing financial burden within russia as the government seeks new sources of revenue. The new fiscal measures are directed against business.
According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, the kremlin has introduced a number of new control mechanisms aimed at increasing government revenues.
They include advance payments of value-added tax (VAT), stricter import inspection systems, licensing requirements for tobacco trade, and criminalization of cryptocurrency mining.
The authorities are also focusing on monitoring cash circulation, informal employment, and the gold market.
The russian Ministry of Finance estimates that these measures could bring in between USD 7.6 and USD 10 billion a year. However, analysts believe these estimates are overstated. The campaign comes amid growing financial pressure on russia's corporate sector.
Official statistics show that the share of unprofitable companies in 2025 increased to 27.1% compared to 25.5% last year. Total losses increased by 7.5%.
Intelligence officials say that the deteriorating business environment has led to a reduction in tax revenues, prompting the government to strengthen supervision and control over compliance with the law.
Russian businesses have responded by raising prices, laying off employees and cutting back on investments. Some companies are also increasingly moving into the shadow economy to avoid increased scrutiny and taxation.
In russia's Far East, up to 36% of entrepreneurs are considering closing their businesses, reflecting growing uncertainty and financial pressure.
Banking data also indicates that non-cash payments have stagnated following the VAT increase to 22%. At the same time, many businesses are switching to cash payments.
Ukrainian intelligence says the campaign is aimed at providing additional resources for russia's military operations. The kremlin is looking for new sources of revenue as military spending continues to grow, putting an additional burden on the state budget.
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