Analysts estimate probability of oil prices rising to USD 200 per barrel at 40% - Bloomberg

World oil prices could reach a record-breaking USD 200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping due to the war against Iran. The price of the benchmark Brent crude is currently trading at USD 104.

Bloomberg wrote about this with reference to analysts from the Australian investment bank Macquarie Group.

Analysts believe that the conflict, which will last until the end of the second quarter of this year, will lead to historically high oil prices. The probability of such a scenario is 40%. An alternative forecast, the probability of which is 60%, assumes that the war will end by the end of March.

"If the strait remains closed for a long period, prices will have to rise so high that it will lead to a historically significant reduction in global demand for oil," the Macquarie report says.

At the same time, the timing of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and physical damage to energy infrastructure for production and processing will be the main factors that will determine the long-term impact on commodity markets.

At the time of publication of the news, the cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil rose to almost USD 110. At the beginning of the month, a barrel was traded at a record-breaking USD 119.5. Bloomberg notes that in the crisis year of 2008, the cost of oil at its peak was USD 147.5 per barrel.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on March 26, The Telegraph published a report citing the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) that due to the consequences of the war against Iran, the aggressor country of russia earns USD 760 million daily.

Recall, on March 25 it became known that the cost of a barrel of some types of oil from the Middle East countries jumped to USD 160. Analysts believe that other oil grades, in particular the benchmark Brent, will also rise to this value if the situation does not change.

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