The US and Israel were preparing a joint military campaign against Iran, counting on an uprising of the Iranian population and a quick overthrow of the regime, because the Mossad gave the appropriate assessments. The plan was not implemented.
This is what The New York Times writes.
Mossad head David Barnea is quoted as the one who proposed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a plan to incite the Iranian opposition to mass riots. Netanyahu supported this initiative and presented it to senior American officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.
Previously, the Israeli Prime Minister had convinced US President Donald Trump of the possibility of a quick overthrow of the Iranian regime, relying on the optimistic forecasts of the Mossad. At the same time, American military and intelligence analysts of the Israel Defense Forces (AMAN) expressed doubts about the effectiveness of such a scenario.
American intelligence officials stated that the probability of mass protests in Iran during the airstrikes was low, and they doubted that the operations would cause civil war. Despite this, Netanyahu and Trump planned a series of strikes on Iranian leaders and intelligence operations for regime change, counting on a quick uprising and an end to hostilities.
The New York Times notes that overconfidence in the ability to provoke a large-scale uprising was a strategic mistake. This led to an escalation of the conflict, Iranian attacks on American bases and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and an increase in oil prices.
Recall that there have already been anti-government protests in Iran. They began in late 2025 and continued into early 2026. They were caused by an economic crisis, but then political slogans emerged. Protesters demanded a change in the theocratic regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The authorities responded with violent methods: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security forces opened fire on demonstrators, shut down the internet, and carried out mass arrests.
According to human rights activists, several thousand people were killed and more than 10,000 were detained.
On March 22, Donald Trump said that he was giving Iran 48 hours to unblock the Strait of Hormuz or he would order the destruction of the country's entire energy infrastructure. In response, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, announced that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Middle East could be "irreversibly destroyed" in the event of an attack on Iranian power plants.
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