The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has worsened Ukraine's baseline economic development scenario, on which the forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 is based.
This is stated in the bank's materials, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
It is noted that, provided that the war continues throughout 2026, the bank now forecasts Ukraine's real GDP growth at 2.5% this year and 4.0% in 2027.
The EBRD reported that supporting the country's macroeconomic stability is significant, secured and largely predictable external financing.
Although the war continues to inflict significant human and economic losses, Ukraine's authorities, businesses and partners have demonstrated the ability to stabilize the economy under unprecedented conditions.
At the same time, the bank reported that real GDP growth in 2025 remained low overall.
The economy grew by 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter and by 3.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.8% in the first half of the year.
Inflation, which was elevated in early 2025, fell sharply in the second half of the year thanks to tighter monetary policy, easing spending pressures and a stable exchange rate.
By January 2026, inflation had fallen to 7.4%.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in September last year, the EBRD downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2025 from 3.3% to 2.5%.
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