Russia before invasion believed 90% of Ukrainians would welcome or reluctantly accept occupation - The Guardian

Russian dictator vladimir putin and his supporters believed that nine out of ten Ukrainians would support the aggressor country of russia after the start of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

This is stated in the material of the British publication The Guardian.

The publication writes that Western intelligence agencies had information that russia was preparing an attack on Ukraine in 2022. Officials from the US and Great Britain tried to convince their European colleagues of the reality of the threat of invasion.

However, European intelligence services faced a psychological obstacle. They considered putin to be a largely rational figure, and therefore were deeply skeptical that he would proceed with the implementation of a plan that, in their opinion, was likely to fail.

The Guardian notes that according to russian estimates, which were later obtained and summarized by Western services, the Kremlin believed that 90% of Ukrainians would actively support or reluctantly accept the russian occupation. It was believed that only one in ten Ukrainians would actively resist the invasion.

"This was a hopelessly optimistic estimate, but even 10% of Ukraine's population amounted to 4 million people. The Europeans believed that the forces accumulated by russia were clearly insufficient to combat such resistance," the publication writes.

The European services had the same information, but each country assessed putin's intentions differently. Basically, they believed that the russians would try to distract the Ukrainians with strikes on Kyiv in order to carry out a limited invasion of Donbas, rather than make a full-scale military invasion.

However, the Americans saw detailed russian plans to establish a new political order in Ukraine and were increasingly convinced that putin was preparing for a full-scale invasion with the aim of regime change.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in December 2025, a scandal broke out in the United States due to the publication in the media of the conclusion of American intelligence that russia had not abandoned plans to completely seize Ukraine. This assessment contrasts sharply with the statements of US President Donald Trump. Against this background, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard accused journalists of spreading false narratives.

To request a correction, please send an email.