Russia has sharply increased the production of ammunition to a scale that indicates not only the continuation of the war against Ukraine, but also the preparation for possible future conflicts beyond its borders.
This is stated in the report of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service for 2026.
According to the intelligence service, in 2025 the russian military-industrial complex produced more than 7 million shells, mines and missiles against 4.5 million in 2024. In general, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the volume of ammunition production in the russian federation has increased 17 times - mainly due to the launch of new production lines.
The structure of production in 2025 was as follows:
- howitzer ammunition (122 mm, 152 mm and 203 mm) - 3.4 million;
- mortar shells (120 mm and 240 mm) – 2.3 million;
- ammunition for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles – 0.8 million;
- missiles for MLRS – 0.5 million.
In addition to its own production, Moscow is actively replenishing its arsenals through imports. Since 2023, russia has received 5–7 million rounds of ammunition from Iran and North Korea. According to Estonian intelligence, shells from the DPRK could account for up to half of all ammunition used by the russian federation against Ukraine in the second half of 2025.
Production of artillery ammunition in russia, 2021-2025.
The purchase of imported ammunition cost russia approximately RUB 1 trillion (about EUR 10.6 billion) in 2025. At the same time, the cost of its own shells remains low: for example, a 152-mm ammunition costs less than RUB 100,000 (about EUR 1,050), which is significantly cheaper than Western counterparts of the 155-mm caliber.
"For the Kremlin, maintaining these stocks is almost certainly a critically important element of planning for potential future conflicts... Russia sets itself long-term operational goals in the war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent revival of rhetoric about peace negotiations is just a tactic to buy time."
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that russia has no intention of changing its plans and will continue to demand Ukraine's diplomatic and military surrender.
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