Businesses in January seasonally weakened their assessments of business activity, while the level of expectations was slightly higher compared to January last year
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for a forced break in March-May 2022, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
In addition to seasonality, the dynamics of the index was restrained by increased attacks on energy and logistics infrastructure, energy shortages, rising production costs for alternative power sources, logistics problems, shortage of qualified specialists, and increased exchange rate expectations. At the same time, international financial assistance and slowing inflation remained positive factors.
In January 2026, the BAEI was 41.3 compared to 49.2 in December 2025, but was slightly higher than in January 2025 (41). Respondents in all sectors except manufacturing had better expectations for their current performance than a year ago.
Industrial enterprises were more cautious than in the previous month in assessing the results of their current activities, given the large-scale destruction of production facilities, high costs of their restoration, as well as the lack of electricity and skilled workers: the sectoral index in January was 41.7 compared to 46.5 in December 2025 (in January 2025 - 42). Industrialists continued to expect a decrease in the volume of manufactured goods, new orders for products, including exports, and work in progress, and were also set to reduce inventories of raw materials. In contrast to the previous month, estimates of finished goods stocks deteriorated.
Construction companies were the most restrained among the surveyed sectors in assessing the results of their current activities, given the difficult weather conditions and rising production costs due to power outages: the sectoral index in January amounted to 37.9 compared to 47.6 in December 2025 (in January 2025 - 37.2). In contrast to the previous month, builders expected a decline in construction, purchases of raw materials, and significantly lowered their estimates of new orders. Expectations regarding the availability of contractors softened, the cost of their services remained high, and the volume of purchases of contractors' services remained at the level of the previous month.
Trading companies, after ten months of positive expectations, significantly weakened their assessments of their current activities due to the traditional decline in economic activity in the first month of the year and the shortage of electricity: the sectoral index in January was 40 compared to 52.2 in December 2025 (in January 2025 - 40). Trade companies expected a decrease in turnover, purchases of goods for sale, and inventories. As before, the respondents were set to reduce their trading margins.
Service companies significantly lowered their estimates of economic prospects, given the increase in business costs for labor and heating, complications in logistics, as well as the need for energy and labor: the sectoral index in January was 42.1 compared to 49.8 in December 2025 (in January 2025 - 41.1). In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the volume of services provided, new orders for services, and services in progress.
Against the background of the expected acceleration in the growth of purchase prices, respondents from all sectors expected further price / tariff increases for their products / services
The situation on the labor market is unstable. Unlike in the previous month, managers of enterprises in all sectors were inclined to reduce the total number of employees, most significantly in industry.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from January 05 to 22, 2026. It involved 594 enterprises. Among the surveyed enterprises, 44.1% are industrial companies, 25.3% are service companies, 24.7% are trade companies, and 5.9% are construction companies; 31.1% of respondents are large enterprises, 29.5% are medium-sized, and 29.4% are small enterprises.
34.3% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.1% - only export operations, 17.8% - only import operations, 38.7% - do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - business leaders, and not the estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for rapid assessment and tracking of economic development trends. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly indices of business activity expectations are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value of 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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