In the 4th quarter of 2025, business maintained positive assessments of business activity over the next 12 months; respondents cautiously assessed the future production volumes of goods and services in Ukraine, improved inflation and slightly strengthened exchange rate expectations.
This is announced in a statement by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) in the 4th quarter was 102.1% compared to 102.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2025.
Survey participants maintained positive expectations regarding the financial and economic condition of enterprises, total sales volumes, investment expenditures on machinery, equipment and inventory.
Businesses in 10 surveyed regions and the vast majority of types of activity expected a revival in business activity.
Estimates regarding the future total number of employees became less pessimistic.
Military actions and their consequences remain the dominant factor affecting the ability of enterprises to increase production volumes.
More than other factors, the increased impact of too high energy prices, limited production capacities and a shortage of qualified workers was expected.
Business cautiously assessed the volume of production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months: the balance of responses was "minus" 1.8% (in the 3rd quarter – 6.1%).
Respondents from eight regions expected an increase in production volumes.
The highest expectations were demonstrated by energy and water supply enterprises, large enterprises, as well as those operating exclusively in the domestic market.
The lowest were trade enterprises, small enterprises and those carrying out only export operations.
Inflation expectations improved: in the 4th quarter, the expected annual inflation in the next 12 months was 11.1% compared to 11.4% in the previous quarter.
The share of respondents who believed that inflation would exceed 15.0% decreased by 4.8 pp to 17.9% over the quarter.
Military actions remain the most significant pro-inflationary factor for 83.4% of respondents.
Respondents also expected a significant impact of the "production costs" factor and the exchange rate factor.
Instead, for the first time in the last five quarters, expectations for price growth on world markets weakened.
Expectations for the impact of the "tax changes" factor weakened for the third time in a row.
Respondents slightly strengthened exchange rate expectations - to 44.27 UAH/USD from 44.11 UAH/USD in the previous quarter.
66.6% of respondents expected an exchange rate above 43.50 UAH/USD, 32.9% of respondents – within 40.51-43.50 UAH/USD.
Business maintained restrained assessments of the current financial and economic condition of their own enterprises: the balance of responses was "minus" 5.8% compared to "minus" 5.3% in the 3rd quarter.
Respondents continued to positively assess changes in the financial and economic condition of their own enterprises in the next 12 months: the balance of responses was 0.8% (in the 3rd quarter of 2025 – 1.7%).
Optimistic expectations were demonstrated by enterprises in the energy and water supply, processing industry and construction.
In contrast, respondents in the extractive industry expected the future financial and economic condition of their own enterprises to remain at the current level.
The quarterly survey was conducted from November 3 to 28, 2025.
The survey was attended by 663 enterprises from 21 regions of the country (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions).
Among the surveyed enterprises, 21.1% were trade companies, 19.0% were processing industry companies, 14.3% were agriculture companies, 13.9% were transport and communications companies, 6.0% were mining companies, 4.8% were energy and water supply companies, 3.3% were construction companies, and 17.5% were others.
31.4% of respondents were large enterprises, 36.7% were medium-sized enterprises, and 32.0% were small.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in the 3rd quarter of 2025, business maintained positive assessments of business activity over the next 12 months.
The survey results reflect only the opinion of respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the NBU's assessment
The Business Activity Expectations Index is an aggregate indicator of the expected development of enterprises in the next 12 months.
It is calculated based on the results of enterprise surveys as the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses regarding the financial and economic condition of enterprises, total sales of own-produced products, investment expenditures for construction work, machinery, equipment and inventory, and the number of employees.
An index value of more than 100 means a predominance of positive economic sentiment in society, below 100 - negative economic sentiment.
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