Russia will face new problems in filling the budget if the United States gains control over Venezuela's oil production, said billionaire Oleg Deripaska, founder of the aluminum company Rusal. He was reacting to Washington's military operation in Caracas, during which President of the Republic Nicolás Maduro was captured.
"If our American 'partners' get to the oil fields of Venezuela (and they have already reached the fields of Guyana), they will control more than half of the world's oil reserves," the businessman wrote.
According to Deripaska, the US plans to "make sure" that the price of russian oil "does not rise above USD 50 per barrel," and such a scenario threatens the current economic model of the russian federation.
"This means that it will be difficult for our sacred state capitalism to leave everything as it is: not to cut costs, not to get rid of non-profile, to continue to engage in grandiose projects without competencies and without the participation of private business," the billionaire said.
Deripaska added that the russian authorities will also "put a lot of pressure on private business," which "will become the main taxpayer to the federal budget starting this year."
In November, the average export price of russian oil was about USD 45 per barrel, and in December it fell to USD 34. Against this backdrop, the Central Bank warned of budget cuts. The regulator also suggested a revision of the base oil price in the budget rule for the following years.
In 2025, it was equal to USD 60 per barrel, and for this year it is set at USD 59. It is assumed that the base price will then decrease by a dollar a year - to USD 55 in 2030.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the terrorist country, the average price of Brent oil in 2026-2028 will be USD 70-72 per barrel, and the discount of russian Urals will gradually decrease from USD 12 per barrel in 2025 to USD 7 by 2028 "due to optimization of logistics and further reorientation". The long-term budget forecast includes a price of USD 69 for Urals from 2030.
At the same time, the December short-term estimate of the US Department of Energy suggests that a barrel of Brent will fall to USD 55 in the first quarter and will remain at about this level throughout 2026.
Goldman Sachs predicts an average price of USD 56/barrel this year, ING - USD 57, Citi - USD 62, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies - USD 65. Taking into account current discounts, this means that the price of russian oil will be at best a little more than USD 50.
Former First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the russian federation Sergei Aleksashenko noted that no one knows how the Ministry of Finance will compensate for the fall in oil and gas revenues if the decline in russian oil prices proves to be sustainable.
A negative scenario could be realized as early as the first quarter of 2026, warned russian economist Kirill Rodionov. According to him, the oil and gas industry "can only be avoided by reducing the Urals discount to Brent and increasing production," but this requires a way out of international isolation.
Russia's long-term budget forecast, which putin's government approved in December, envisions oil and gas revenues more than halving by 2042, from the current 4% to 1.9% of GDP, the lowest level since the early 2000s.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, US President Donald Trump said that his Venezuelan colleague and his wife were captured and taken out of the country as a result of a special operation.
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