Scenario almost impossible to avoid - Foreign Intelligence Service predicts collapse of russian economy from July 2026

Analysts close to the kremlin predict a prolonged recession in russia's economy.

This is stated in an analytical note from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, the text of which is posted on the official Facebook page of the special service.

The report notes that the russian economy is rapidly moving towards recession, and this is already recognized by analytical structures close to the kremlin. According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, which operates in the orbit of the russian government, if current trends continue, the recession will almost certainly begin by July 2026, a scenario that is almost impossible to avoid.

"If at the beginning of 2025 the main risk trigger was the Central Bank's tight policy and record high discount rate, now even its gradual decline does not change the overall picture. The likelihood of a recession is growing, indicating deeper, structural problems: falling business confidence, slowing economic activity, and weakening domestic demand. The consensus of Russian analysts is unequivocal - under the current conditions of tight monetary policy, the economy is doomed to decline," the FIS analysts stated.

Signals of deterioration are only getting worse. In October, the recession recovery indicator fell from 0.345 to 0.1, a value that is significantly below the threshold of 0.35 and directly indicates the risk of a protracted recession lasting more than a year. Among the key reasons are the accumulated effect of the strengthening of the ruble, which hits the trade balance, and the expected slowdown in the global economy.

"Even a hypothetical end to the war against Ukraine, as experts recognize, will not be a lifeline. On the contrary, a reduction in military orders, lower incomes, and a drop in industrial production can only deepen the crisis. In 2026, additional fiscal pressure will force the Russian government to reallocate resources in favor of "priority" sectors, preserving imbalances and undermining the remaining growth," the intelligence service says.

The Foreign Intelligence Service emphasizes that the conclusion, which is becoming increasingly difficult to hide even in russia itself, is obvious: the decline is systemic. Monetary maneuvers no longer solve anything, and there are virtually no sources for economic recovery.

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