An employee of the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made unauthorized changes to an interactive map of hostilities in Ukraine used by the think tank. This edit allowed participants of the Polymarket platform to receive payments on bets on the situation in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Region.
The incident was reported by Responsible Statecraft.
On November 15, when russian forces were advancing towards the city, Polymarket users were betting in real time on whether the occupiers would capture Myrnohrad. The total amount of bets reached USD 1.3 million. If the city was captured, some players could have made a profit of up to 33,000%. Although Myrnohrad never came under russian control, some users still received payments due to a change in the ISW map.
According to 404 Media, before Polymarket determined the results of the bets, one of ISW's analysts edited the map to show the alleged capture of a key intersection in Myrnohrad by russians. There was no confirmation of such a move. After the payment, this edit disappeared from the map.
On November 17, ISW announced that it had discovered "misleading and unauthorized" changes made without management's permission. The next day, the name of the employee who worked on the daily maps was removed from the center's website. RS sources said that he was fired, but it is not known whether he had a direct interest in the bets.
The incident caused outrage among Polymarket users. Some said that ISW discredited itself and questioned the reliability of such exchanges. On social media, players also faced criticism for betting on the war in the first place.
In a comment to 404 Media, ISW emphasized that it categorically does not support the use of its cards for gambling predictions about the war and does not authorize such use of data.
It is unknown whether this case was an isolated one. Some Polymarket users claim that a similar situation was noticed on October 29, when ISW allegedly prematurely showed russian control over the railway in Kupiansk, while other mapping projects did not confirm this. At the time, there was active fighting in the area of the railroad
We would like to remind you that the DeepState analytical project states that the army of the aggressor country russia has advanced in the area of three settlements on the Sloviansk and Pokrovsk axes.
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