The National Bank reported that the actual inflation trajectory was slightly lower than the forecast published in the October Inflation Report due to the impact of a more significant slowdown in the growth of raw food prices, as well as core inflation.
This is stated in the report of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
The latter was lower than forecast due to a sharper slowdown in the rise in prices for non-food goods and services.
The annual growth rate of prices for raw food products continued to slow down to 9.6% yoy.
The fall in prices for vegetables deepened (to -27.8% yoy), in particular due to borscht vegetables. One of the main reasons for this was difficulties in storing sufficiently high yields. The growth rate of fruit prices slowed slightly, while the dynamics of prices for individual fruits was mixed. Growth in flour prices slowed due to an increase in the share of milling wheat in the harvest, and in milk prices due to weak domestic demand and falling prices on global markets. The long-running upward trend in pork prices was interrupted by increased competitive supply from the EU. Amid a further decline in external prices, the growth in chicken prices slowed.
Core inflation continued to decline to 9.3%.
The rise in prices for processed foods slowed to 14.0% yoy. The growth rate of prices for certain dairy products, in particular butter and cheese, further decreased.
The growth in non-food prices continued to decelerate to 0.8% yoy. Prices for clothing and footwear declined at a steady pace, while the growth in prices for other non-food products continued to slow.
Services inflation also declined to 13.4%. One of the reasons for this could be a partial reduction in pressure from the labor market, in particular a slowdown in real wage growth. As a result, the growth rate of prices for insurance and financial services, housing rental and apartment building management services, cafes and fast food services, outpatient services, etc. decreased.
The growth rate of administratively regulated prices slowed slightly to 10.4% yoy.
This dynamics is due to the slowdown in the rate of increase in the price of bread, pharmaceutical products, alcoholic beverages and almost unchanged rates of increase in the price of tobacco products.
Fuel inflation accelerated to 5.3%.
This dynamics is due, in particular, to the increase in diesel fuel prices in November against the background of increasing external prices and complicated logistics.
The price pressure is expected to ease further in the coming months. The effects of new harvests will contribute to a further slowdown in food price growth. At the same time, the NBU's measures to maintain interest in hryvnia assets and the stability of the FX market will keep underlying price pressures in check. As a result, consumer inflation is expected to continue to decline, but at a more moderate pace than in previous periods, given the exhaustion of the effects of the comparison base.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in November 2025, inflation continued to slow down to 9.3% year-on-year, with prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month.
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