The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts the start of net return of refugees to Ukraine from 2027.
This is stated in the materials of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
It is noted that the start of gradual return of Ukrainian migrants is expected before the end of the forecast horizon, however, the speed of return migration will depend on security risks.
The preservation of high security risks, in particular, the shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine by the russian federation and terrorist attacks against the civilian population, caused a moderate outflow of migrants abroad.
The extension of the terms of stay in the EU and/or the transition to permanent residence regimes will most likely restrain the active return of migrants in the forecast horizon.
Given the slow normalization of economic conditions, estimates of migration flows in the coming years have worsened.
At the same time, the assumptions for 2025 remain unchanged: a net outflow of about 0.2 million people abroad is expected.
It is assumed that in 2026 the outflow of migrants will continue at a similar pace to this year (about 0.2 million people), while the April forecast predicted the return of 0.2 million people.
Net return will begin only in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, in the previous forecast - 0.5 million people).
The total number of migrants has been reduced in accordance with the updated UN methodology.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the volume of private remittances in October decreased by 7.1% and amounted to USD 0.7 billion.
The wages that Ukrainians receive from abroad decreased by 25.3%, and other private transfers received through official channels increased by 18.3%.
Overall, inflows through official channels were at the level of October 2024, decreasing by only 0.9%, while the flow through informal channels decreased by 16.2% compared to October last year.
In total, for January-October 2025, the volume of remittances decreased by 12.1% and amounted to USD 7.0 billion: net labor payments decreased by 19.8%, and private transfers decreased by 2.3%.
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