On November 28-29, events took place in the Black Sea that could significantly change the configuration of russia's oil sanctions circumvention. Two tankers, KAIROS (IMO 9236004) and VIRAT (IMO 9832559), belonging to the so-called "shadow fleet" of the russian federation and subject to sanctions imposed by the US, EU and UK, were hit in two separate attacks. According to the sources, both vessels were hit by Ukrainian Sea Baby maritime drones in a joint operation by the SSU and the Ukrainian Navy.
Who was hit?
The KAIROS tanker is a Crude Oil Tanker, deadweight -115,000 tons, flag until November 2025: Gambia (after - without a flag, "stateless"), and the operator: the Chinese company ALAFIA TRADING LTD (Shanghai). The UK and EU imposed sanctions against it. According to monitoring studies, the tanker has made at least 8 voyages with russian oil in 1.5 years, totaling about 1.2 million tons.
The second target is the tanker VIRAT with a deadweight of 105,000 tons, and the flag was until November 2025: Gambia. And earlier - Comoros), operator: Glory Shipping HK Ltd (Hong Kong), owner - East Honest Hong Kong Ltd. It is under sanctions of the US, EU, UK and Canada. The tanker made at least 7 voyages with a volume of about 0.8 million tons.
Both tankers were moving empty to the port of Novorossiysk for loading. That is, they were empty at the time of the strike, which minimizes the negative impact on the environment.
The arguments of the initiators of the operation are as follows: "The SSU continues to take active steps to cut Russia's financial capabilities to wage war against Ukraine. Sea Baby drones disabled vessels that could have transported almost USD 70 million worth of oil and helped the Kremlin to circumvent international sanctions."
Why were these vessels targeted?
Because KAIROS and VIRAT are classic representatives of the so-called "shadow fleet", i.e. a fleet of vessels with an opaque ownership structure, variable flags and the insurance "gray" sector. These are the tankers that provide up to 25-35% of russian oil exports under sanctions.
Both vessels regularly: turned off AIS transponders (a violation of SOLAS), carried out STS operations (ship-to-ship), transshipped side-by-side in non-conventional areas, and worked with sanctioned terminals.
So far, the international reaction has been restrained. Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu officially recognized the "external strike" and the "possible use of drones," and the Turkish Maritime Administration released photos of the damaged ships.
Western politicians have so far refrained from commenting.
Why is all this necessary? Because exports from the Black Sea are important for the russian budget. The share of crude oil supplies from the Black Sea ports is about 23% of russia's total exports. In absolute terms, according to various sources, this is 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day. That is, at different prices, this gives russia USD 100-130 million in revenue per day.
According to IEA estimates, in 2025, the russian budget will receive more than 31% of its tax revenues from the oil sector.
And the "shadow fleet" plays a key role in the transportation of those volumes that are sold above the price cap and are not insured by Western companies. In other words, they actually allow the kremlin to earn about USD 1 billion a week, bypassing sanctions.
So, these strikes demonstrate that the "shadow fleet" is not "untouchable."
What will happen now?
The insurance risk will increase for all vessels working with russian oil, which means an increase in logistics costs and a decrease in russian profits.
And this will increase the effect of sanctions, because now the risk is physical, not just legal.
In the coming weeks, it will become clear how much the freight price for ships transporting russian oil will increase. And, as a result, how much less profitable the resale of russian oil will be.
I believe that Ukraine's strategic priority remains unchanged: to achieve a complete embargo on Russian oil and gas by diplomatic and political means.
But, unfortunately, not all countries listen to moral arguments and not all partners respond to legal arguments.
And some states put profit above ethical positions.
That is why, along with sanctions diplomacy, we have to combine targeted kinetic actions that reduce russia's ability to finance aggression.
Thus, Sea Baby maritime drones are no longer just a technology.
It is important that russian oil exports are not irreplaceable now. There is plenty of oil in the world, and it can be bought anywhere without the aggressor's participation.
The combination of sanctions, diplomatic pressure and modern Ukrainian technologies should convince russia's international counterparties to change their behavior.
(с) Source
Who we are: About us, Contacts. How we write news and our principles: Editorial code. We did our best. If you found this valuable – please support us.
To request a correction, please send an email.