Forbes Ukraine estimates population: about 30.5 million people remain in government-controlled territory

Around 30.5 million people currently live in government-controlled territory in Ukraine. Official population statistics have not been published since the start of the full-scale invasion, and the last full census was in 2011, when Ukraine had an estimated 48.5 million people.

This is according to a new analysis by Forbes Ukraine journalists.

The journalists' analysis is based on the 2019 government census and additional data, such as water consumption, birth rates and the number of women of childbearing age. According to 2011 data, Ukraine had a population of about 48.5 million. An alternative government study in 2019 estimated the population in government-controlled territory at 37.3 million. During the war, expert estimates ranged from 28 million to 37.9 million.

Forbes' methods included residual calculations, calculations based on fertility, and analysis of water consumption. The latter was considered the most accurate, since water consumption in most households remains relatively stable over time. According to the final integrated estimate, the population in the controlled territory is 30.5 million, which is 7 million less than the government data for 2019.

For comparison:

• The Institute of Demography estimates the population in the controlled territory at 31.1 million (July 2024).
• IMF - 33.3 million.
• UN - 37.9 million (taking into account temporarily occupied territories, actually 32.9 - 33.4 million).

Forbes also analyzed internal migration: the main directions of displacement were the city of Kyiv, the Dnipropetrovsk and Lviv Regions. According to journalists, the demographic center of the country has shifted 130-140 km to the west, which indicates a population movement towards the EU.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the population of Ukraine has sharply decreased. Thus, as of February 1, 2023, it was 41,130,400 people. This was reported by the State Statistics Service last year.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, a catastrophic drop in the birth rate was predicted in 2023, and by 2030 the population may decrease to 35 million.

The reduction in the population of Ukraine is associated with a full-scale invasion, when entire cities disappear due to Russian aggression. Thus, in August 2022, the mayor of Mariupol said that the mortality rate in the city had increased fivefold, and every fourth patient dies in hospitals.

To request a correction, please send an email.