NBU expects inflation to slow by end of year

The National Bank expects inflation to slow down by the end of the year.

This is stated in the message of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

It is noted that the actual inflation trajectory was slightly higher than the forecast published in the October Inflation Report due to the impact of a moderate slowdown in the growth rate of prices for raw foods.

The annual growth rate of raw food prices continued to decelerate to 15.2% yoy.

The decline in vegetable prices deepened (to -21.5% yoy), primarily due to borscht vegetables, while the decline in tomato prices slowed and the growth in cucumber prices resumed. The growth in fruit prices slowed significantly. The rate of rise in prices for flour and eggs continued to decline. The growth in prices for pork and chicken stabilized, while the growth in prices for beef slowed slightly. Instead, cereals and milk grew more rapidly

Core inflation continued to decline to 10.2%.

The rise in prices for processed foods slowed to 15.6% yoy. In particular, the growth rate of prices for certain dairy products, bread, sunflower oil, and soft drinks decreased. At the same time, the rise in prices for processed fish and seafood accelerated.

The growth in the cost of non-food products continued to slow to 1.6% yoy. The fall in prices for clothing and footwear deepened.

Services inflation also slowed to 13.8%, which may have reflected a partial easing of imbalances in the labor market. Thus, the growth in prices for hospitals, personal care, the Internet, taxis, insurance, hotels, etc. slowed down.

The growth rate of administratively regulated prices slowed slightly to 10.6% yoy.

This was due to a further decline in the rate of increase in tobacco prices and a slight slowdown in the growth of prices for alcoholic beverages.

The growth rate of fuel prices slowed to 3.9%

This dynamics is mainly due to the effect of the comparison base, while prices for all types of fuel remained almost unchanged in October.

Inflation is expected to slow further at the end of the year due to sufficient food supply and monetary policy measures of the NBU aimed at maintaining interest in hryvnia assets and the stability of the foreign exchange market.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in October 2025, inflation continued to slow down to 10.9% year-on-year.

In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.9%.

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