Dragon Capital predicts a controlled depreciation of the hryvnia by the end of the year.
This is stated in the report of the company, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"We expect that by the end of the year the NBU will allow the hryvnia to weaken slightly against the US dollar amid a seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency, but will refrain from significant devaluation. According to our updated forecast, the hryvnia exchange rate will reach UAH 43.0/USD. USD by the end of 2025 and 44.0 UAH/USD by the end of 2026. USD by the end of 2026, compared to 43.5 and 46.0 expected earlier," the report says.
It is noted that at present, the combination of economic factors that shapes the National Bank's vision is in favor of a relatively stable hryvnia to the US dollar.
As losses from the shelling of critical infrastructure will increase underlying inflationary pressures, the NBU's foreign exchange reserves will remain at record high levels despite the growing foreign trade deficit, and the consensus forecast assumes that the weakness of the US dollar against other currencies will continue.
The company reminded that in January-September this year, the NBU strengthened the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar by 1.5%, after weakening by 10% in 2024.
The change in trajectory likely reflects the NBU's response to high inflation, a satisfactory balance of payments, and a significant weakening of the US dollar against the euro and other currencies.
Thus, the hryvnia weakened by 9.3% against the euro, which supported the competitiveness of Ukrainian goods against the EU, Ukraine's largest trading partner.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Dragon Capital expected the National Bank of Ukraine to return to controlled and gradual hryvnia depreciation in the second half of the year.
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