Dragon Capital has downgraded its forecast for GDP growth in the current and next years.
This is stated in the company's report, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.3 percentage point to 1.7% yoy, and our GDP forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage point to 1.0% yoy in 2026, but due to significant uncertainty about the scale of potential destruction of critical infrastructure, the risks of further deterioration of the forecast remain high," the company said.
The reasons for the downgrade include russian attacks on critical infrastructure.
At the same time, the company confirms its forecast for GDP growth of 5% yoy in 2026 if a sustainable ceasefire is reached early next year due to increased consumption and renewed investment activity amid lower security risks, partial return of refugees and the start of reconstruction, which will be supported by sufficient external resources.
These factors will outweigh the negative impact on the economy from the reduction of defense spending from the budget.
According to the companies' updated forecast, the general government budget deficit will reach a record USD 50 billion this year and is likely to remain as high in 2026, compared to USD 44 billion in the previous forecast.
The agricultural sector will also provide temporary support to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the acceleration of harvesting.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Dragon Capital has previously downgraded its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine.
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