The National Bank expects that in the second half of 2026, a gradual reduction of electricity and gas tariffs to their economically justified levels will begin.
This is stated in the material of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"The timing and parameters of the revision of tariffs for housing and communal services, as well as certain administratively regulated prices, are an area of uncertainty and, accordingly, a risk to the inflation forecast. The NBU expects that the current tariffs for electricity, gas, heating and hot water supply will not be revised until the end of the 2025-2026 heating season. However, due to the difficult situation in the energy sector, it is assumed that in the second half of 2026, a gradual adjustment of some of these tariffs to their economically justified levels will begin," the statement said.
It is noted that uncertainty about the scale and timing of energy tariff adjustments is a risk to the inflation forecast.
In particular, further postponement of decisions on their increase will lead to lower inflation, but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of energy companies.
The NBU reports that at the same time, the risks of an unstable situation in the energy market will increase amid the need to restore damaged capacities, the investment potential of the industry will deteriorate, and the price surge will only be postponed for the future.
A sufficiently rapid and significant increase in energy prices may eliminate imbalances in the energy sector, but will increase inflationary pressure in the relevant period and will require an increase in subsidies for the population.
A prolonged high-intensity war will worsen the prospects for economic recovery in Ukraine, business and consumer sentiment, exacerbate demographic and labor market problems, and pressure on public finances will remain high.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in April, it was reported that an updated memorandum between Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund said that the Ukrainian government could resume gradual increases in energy and utility tariffs before the end of the full-scale war.
The Cabinet of Ministers has increased the electricity tariff for households by 60% to UAH 4.32 per kWh starting June 1, 2024
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