Ratio of losses of AFU and russian army becoming increasingly incredible - Western analysts published conclusions

Russia's great summer offensive on the front in Ukraine failed. The aggressor lost up to 100,000 soldiers killed, and the territorial gains were negligible. At the same time, the ratio of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the russian army is becoming increasingly incredible.

This is stated in the publication of the influential international publication The Economist.

The authors of the article are puzzled by the fact that in the West everyone is focused on the lack of manpower in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and on the fact that the russian army is constantly advancing.

"This is the wrong way to look at it. What is more striking is how little territory russia has captured in its third and largest offensive; and the terrible price it has paid in men and materiel. Unless something changes dramatically, vladimir putin will not be able to win the war on the battlefield. The fact that he is still trying, despite everything, suggests that he has run out of ideas," writes The Economist. The authors of the publication analyzed about 200 reliable estimates of russian losses from Western governments and independent researchers. Combining these data showed that from the start of the full-scale invasion until January 2025, russian total losses ranged from 640,000 to 877,000 soldiers, of whom between 137,000 and 228,000 died. By October 13, this number had increased by almost 60% and amounted to from 984,000 to 1 million 438 thousand, of which 190,000-480,000 were killed.

Although the russian army had territorial gains during this year, on the overall scale of Ukraine they were negligible. At this pace, the capture of the entire territory of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions will occur no earlier than June 2030. And to capture all of Ukraine, the russians will need another 103 years.

At the same time, The Economist does not see the prerequisites for a sudden collapse of Ukrainian defense, since this excludes the very nature of the fighting: the constant threat of drones makes it impossible to concentrate significant forces in one place. Even in the case of local success, it is simply impossible to turn it into a strategic breakthrough.

Another significant point that analysts drew attention to is the ratio of losses on both sides. There is much less data on Ukrainian losses than on russian ones. A more or less plausible estimate is provided by the website UALosses, which, based on public obituaries, counted 77,403 deaths among Ukrainian soldiers during the entire period of the full-scale war, as well as another 77,842 missing. At the same time, there has been a noticeable trend towards a decrease in the number of deaths over the past year: only 8,668 obituaries have been registered since last autumn.

And although this is obviously the most conservative estimate, it is still impressive when compared with the losses of the russian federation. According to The Economist, even if the real number of Ukrainian deaths is twice as high as the statistics on the website, this still means that in 2025 there will be approximately five russian soldiers killed for every killed Ukrainian.

"At this rate, human resources may soon become a more serious constraint for russia than for Ukraine. When the offensive began, russians were lured with generous bonuses for joining the service, and Mr. putin's recruitment outpaced Ukraine's by 10,000-15,000 a month. But russia's heavy losses this summer have likely negated that advantage," the publication says.

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