The actual growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter turned out to be lower than the National Bank's estimate published in the Inflation Report for July 2025 (1.1% y/y), primarily due to the more significant impact of adverse weather conditions on the timing of crop ripening, some of which was postponed to subsequent quarters.
This is stated in the NBU's message, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The NBU notes that the main factors holding back economic growth remain the consequences of a full-scale war: the loss of people, territories, production facilities and infrastructure.
A significant contribution to the slowdown in recovery in Q2 was also made by the decline in agricultural indicators.
Private consumption provided the largest positive contribution to real GDP growth in Q2 2025 (5.5 pp).
Household final consumer spending growth accelerated to 9.0% y/y (from 1.6% y/y in Q1).
The economic recovery will continue in the second half of the year.
This will be facilitated by the intensification of harvests, stable domestic demand, and increased fiscal stimulus amid expanded budget spending.
At the same time, the worsening security situation and increased shelling of infrastructure in recent months will restrain economic growth.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in Q2 2025 real GDP grew by 0.7% in annual terms (y/y), and compared to the previous quarter, by 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.
At the same time, the annual growth rate of the economy slowed down compared to the first quarter of 2025 (0.9% y/y).
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