Despite diplomatic efforts by European allies and loud statements by Donald Trump, the situation has returned to square one. As before January, the Kremlin demands that Ukraine give up about 130,000 square kilometers of its territory and effectively become a vassal state of russia.
This is what the authors of the influential publication The Telegraph write about.
Russia has announced the annexation of five Ukrainian regions. At the same time, Ukraine retains control over at least 13,000 square kilometers in four of them, including the regional centers Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
According to American officials, the Kremlin seems ready to reduce its demands and not insist on the transfer of these cities. In return, putin seeks to control another 6,000 square miles of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, where about 250,000 people now live.
"No Ukrainian leader could agree to these terms, especially given that the territory putin wants includes vital fortifications. And there is no hint that putin might reverse russia's annexation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which would mean he would also retain his claims to both of these Ukrainian regions," the reporters state.
Experts believe that the only way to force Moscow to curb its appetites is through crushing sanctions. However, Washington still lacks real leverage.
"Hardly anyone believes that Trump can still exert such pressure. He huffs and puffs, but he is not going to mock putin," the publication notes.
Weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to come from the United States, but only on commercial terms. This gives Washington additional leverage over Kyiv and encourages Ukraine to seek alternative sources of support.
The only significant change is Trump's willingness to discuss possible security guarantees for Ukraine after the war ends. But it is still unclear whether this will be a real commitment like NATO's Article 5 or just "vague words."
The front line has barely budged since January. Putin continues to demand thousands of square miles that the russian army does not even control, while Trump avoids maximum pressure on the Kremlin.
"The only conclusion is that the bloodiest war in Europe in 80 years will continue, and the last eight months seem to have been full of a lot of fuss about nothing," the publication concludes.
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