The russian military-political leadership used the summit in Alaska on August 15 to, among other things, delay the planned offensive in the fall of 2025. The kremlin expects to "play for time" before a potential offensive in October or November.
At the same time, it is not yet clear where russian troops can focus their main efforts in the fall of 2025. This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.
The russian invaders used the summit in Alaska to intensify current offensive operations. In particular, an infiltration operation was carried out in the area of Dobropillia. In addition, russian forces accumulated drones and missiles, which were used to strike Kyiv on the night of August 28, which led to heavy casualties among the civilian population.
These reports confirm long-term assessments by analysts that the kremlin's military goals in Ukraine remain unchanged. The warning that russian forces are still planning an offensive in the fall of 2025 confirms the long-term assessment of ISW and recent statements by russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that russia's military goals in Ukraine have not changed.
The warning that russian forces are preparing for an autumn offensive is consistent with recent statements by senior Ukrainian officials about russian military plans. In particular, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned in early August that russia could deploy large forces: up to 15,000 troops to the Zaporizhzhia direction, 7,000 to the Pokrovsk direction, and 5,000 to the Novopavlivka direction. These maneuvers by the occupiers may indicate preparations for intensified offensive operations in the near future.
For his part, Deputy Head of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, stated that russian troops plan to achieve all their goals in the area of Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk by early September 2025. At the same time, according to Skibitskyi, the initial plan to capture the entire Donetsk Region was postponed from August 1 to December 31, 2025.
The terrorist country of the russian federation is ready for a protracted war and is not interested in a ceasefire. The offensive is planned in several directions, including Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, as well as in the territories of Kharkiv and Sumy Regions. The russian federation's plans indicate a transition to the tactics of using assault groups as the main element of warfare. A number of experts and analysts believe that hostilities will continue in 2026.
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