The surrender of all territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions to the aggressor country ща russia in exchange for a ceasefire will help the occupation forces avoid years of struggle for the large cities of Donbas and will force Ukraine to abandon the important "belt of fortresses" that has been built here since 2014.
This is stated in the summary of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for August 8.
Analysts analyzed media reports about the alleged demands of dictator vladimir putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine, including Crimea and Donbas. ISW writes that the so-called belt of fortresses of Ukraine is located in eastern Ukraine, which has been the main obstacle to the Kremlin's territorial ambitions in Ukraine for the past 11 years.
It consists of four major cities and several towns and villages, stretching from north to south along the H-20 Kostantynivka-Slovyansk highway, and is 50 kilometers long. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half of the belt and serve as important logistical centers for Ukrainian forces. Druzhkivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka form the southern half of the fortress belt.
Ukrainian forces first began building defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-russian separatists in April 2014. Over the past 11 years, Ukraine has invested money, time and effort in strengthening the fortress belt. The russian federation's failure to capture Slovyansk in 2022 and the current efforts of the occupiers underscore the success of its fortification, ISW points out.
Currently, russian troops are still trying to surround the "belt of fortresses" from the southwest, but its full capture may take several years and will be accompanied by heavy losses. Therefore, putin demands that Ukraine cede a critically important defensive position in Donbas, because russian troops currently do not have the opportunity to quickly capture it.
Fulfilling this demand will lead to the advancement of the Kremlin's troops to the borders with the Dnipropetrovsk Region, where there is no such protection as in Donetsk. ISW notes that Ukraine will urgently need to build massive defensive fortifications in a new place - along the border areas of the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Regions, the terrain of which is poorly suited for a defensive line. This will require large-scale investments.
At the same time, russian troops will move 82 kilometers to the west and will find themselves in a more advantageous position for a future offensive on neighboring areas of the Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk Regions.
ISW continues to assess that the occupiers will almost certainly violate any future ceasefire agreement and resume war against Ukraine in the future unless the peace agreement includes robust monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees for Kyiv.
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