The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that the net return of Ukrainians from abroad will begin in 2027.
This is stated in the NBU inflation report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The NBU notes that the gradual return of Ukrainian migrants is expected to begin by the end of the forecast horizon, but the speed of return migration will depend on security risks.
The persistence of high security risks, in particular, the shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine by the russian federation and terrorist attacks against the civilian population, caused a moderate outflow of migrants abroad.
Ukrainians' adaptation to life abroad has also increased.
The EU has extended the temporary protection regime for Ukrainian migrants until March 2027.
After that, EU countries must determine other regimes of the legal status of Ukrainians who will remain in these countries, in addition to temporary protection, or regimes for their return home.
Specific decisions will depend primarily on the governments of the respective countries (migrant issues are already part of the political discussion during elections in a number of countries), and will also take into account the degree of adaptation of Ukrainians - availability of work, payment of taxes, studying in local educational institutions, etc.
The extension of the terms of stay in the EU and/or the transition to permanent residence regimes will most likely restrain the active return of migrants over the forecast horizon.
Given the slow normalization of economic conditions, estimates of migration flows in the coming years have worsened.
At the same time, the assumptions for 2025 remain unchanged: a net outflow of about 0.2 million people abroad is expected.
It is assumed that in 2026 the outflow of migrants will continue at a similar pace to this year (about 0.2 million people), while the April forecast predicted the return of 0.2 million people.
Net return will begin only in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, in the previous forecast - 0.5 million people).
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in January of this year, the NBU announced that it expects an increase in migration from Ukraine in 2025 and a gradual return of Ukrainians from 2026.
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