The National Bank worsens GDP growth forecast due to war and negative impact of weather conditions on harvest.
The NBU has said this in a statement, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"Economic recovery will continue, but will be limited by the consequences of the war and the negative impact of weather conditions and climate change on harvest. Fiscal incentives, provided by international financing, continued to support economic growth in the first half of the year. However, its pace was restrained due to the increase in the intensity of shelling and the further destruction of production facilities, infrastructure and housing. These same factors also determined the preservation of negative migration trends, which maintained a tense situation on the labor market," the regulator noted.
In addition, it is reported that adverse weather conditions delayed the harvest and limited the prospects of harvests, which, together with the gradual depletion of the products of the previous harvest, hampered the food industry and the transport sector, part of whose capacities remained unused.
"In view of this, the NBU predicts that the economic recovery will be slower than last year - real GDP will grow by 2.1% in 2025. The further pace of recovery will depend on the course of the war. The base scenario of the NBU forecast assumes a gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions and economic growth at the level of 2-3% in 2026-2027," the National Bank reported.
At the same time, in the event of a rapid normalization of conditions, private investment and consumption will increase significantly and compensate for the effects of rapid fiscal consolidation, and the GDP growth rate may be 3-3.5%.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in January-March 2025, real gross domestic product (GDP), according to operational data, increased by 0.9% compared to the same period in 2024.
In April of this year, the National Bank worsened the GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.1% in 2025.
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