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Oil reacts sharply to OPEC's unexpected decision on production

Oil prices fell after OPEC+ countries unexpectedly announced a more significant increase in oil production in August than expected.

Economic Pravda reported this with reference to Reuters.

The report said that Brent crude futures fell by 47 cents (0.69%) to USD 67.83 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 95 cents (1.42%) to USD 66.05.

On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August.

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That's significantly higher than the 411,000-barrel monthly increases agreed for May, June and July, and well above the 138,000-barrel increase in April.

"This increase clearly signals a more aggressive battle for market share and a willingness to accept lower prices and revenues," said Tim Evans of Evans Energy.

RBC Capital analysts led by Helima Croft added that such a decision would effectively return almost 80% of the 2.2 million barrels of voluntary production cuts from the eight OPEC countries to the market.

At the same time, they noted that the actual increase has so far been smaller than planned, with most of the new supply coming from Saudi Arabia.

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In a sign of confidence in strong demand for oil, Saudi Arabia on Sunday raised the August price of its main brand Arab Light to Asian buyers to the highest level in four months.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC+ to announce a final output increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September at its next meeting on August 3.

Uncertainty about US trade tariffs is also weighing on the market, with US officials saying there was a delay in announcing new tariffs but not giving specifics.

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US would finalise several trade deals in the coming days and notify other countries by July 9 of new higher tariffs, which are due to take effect on August 1.

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In April, Trump announced a base tariff rate of 10% for most countries and "reciprocal" tariffs that could reach 50%.

The original deadline was set for this Wednesday.

However, Trump also said that tariffs could range from "60-70% to 10-20%," further increasing uncertainty.

"Concerns about Trump's tariff policy remain a major theme in the second half of 2025. The only factor supporting oil right now is a weak dollar," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

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As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, oil prices fell on July 4 after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear nonproliferation and amid expectations that major producers would agree to increase their production this weekend.

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