The International Monetary Fund in its latest forecast has maintained the baseline scenario, according to which the active phase of the war in Ukraine may end by the end of 2025. This is stated in the Fund's latest report.
"The forecasts for the course of the war remain relevant, since negotiations on its end have not yet yielded results," IMF analysts noted.
The document emphasizes that the prolongation or escalation of the conflict creates additional risks for the economy and limits the possibilities of implementing the cooperation program with Ukraine. At the same time, the Fund emphasized that Ukraine still has time to carry out the necessary reforms.
Among the key macroeconomic assessments:
- Ukraine's GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 2-3%;
- inflation may decrease to 9% per annum due to the stabilization of food prices and a tight monetary policy;
- the current account deficit excluding grants will increase by 1.7% of GDP due to increased imports and decreased exports;
- defense spending will increase, which requires a budget revision - total spending should increase by 5.8% of GDP.
Recall that in the spring, the IMF assumed that the war could end in 2025, which would open the way to economic growth of 4.5% in 2026.
Meanwhile, Fitch has worsened its forecasts for Ukraine, citing weak economic growth and high inflation.
Who we are: About us, Contacts. How we write news and our principles: Editorial code. We did our best. If you found this valuable – please support us.
To request a correction, please send an email.