Putin still believes in victory in war of attrition. ISW names factors that could prevent this

Analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that over the past year, Western countries have failed to change the convictions of russian leader vladimir putin about the possible success in a protracted war against Ukraine. However, it will be difficult for the Kremlin to implement this plan for a number of reasons.

According to the analysts, putin's public statements indicate that he is still convinced of the ability of his troops to achieve victory through slow but steady advance on the front - without clear time limits.

ISW recalls that back in June 2024, during a speech at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, putin clearly voiced his own vision of victory, according to which the russian army is able to gradually displace Ukrainian forces, blocking any significant offensives by Ukraine and thus gaining an advantage in a long struggle.

"Putin's assessment that the gradual successes of the russian army will allow him to achieve his goals in Ukraine is based on the assumption that the Defense Forces will not be able to liberate any significant territory that russia will seize. And the russian military will be able to sustain offensive operations with gradual tactical successes despite heavy losses," the report says.

During a press conference on June 19, 2025, which took place within the framework of the next SPIEF, putin effectively confirmed his commitment to this theory, despite a year of military losses and changes on the front.

Analysts note that the russian strategy is largely based on assumptions about Ukraine's limited capabilities and the gradual decline of Western support - factors that, as the ISW emphasizes, the West can still change.

In the medium term, russia, according to experts, faces significant challenges in the economy and defense industry, which will complicate the further conduct of the war. At the same time, ISW draws attention to the fact that an increase in oil prices - for example, in the event of an escalation in the Middle East - could increase russia's profits and give the Kremlin more resources for war. But only on condition that prices remain high and new sanctions do not limit russian exports.

"Increasing the volume of military aid to Ukraine and economic pressure on russia from the West can strengthen the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield, deepen russia's economic problems and use its weaknesses to achieve a favorable negotiating position that will allow Ukraine and the West to force the Kremlin to make critical concessions and end the war on fair terms," ​​ISW emphasizes.

Separately, experts commented on putin's recent statement regarding German Taurus missiles. The russian leader stated that their transfer to Ukraine "will not affect the course of hostilities," but, they say, will seriously harm relations between Berlin and Moscow.

ISW noted that such statements are not news: the russian authorities regularly downplay the impact of Western weapons on the front, trying to misinform and influence public opinion in NATO countries.

"Such statements by putin are part of the Kremlin's ongoing campaign of reflexive control, aimed at forcing the West to make decisions that are beneficial to russia. For example, to refrain from further assistance to Ukraine or to stop efforts to strengthen NATO's defense capabilities," the report concludes.

To request a correction, please send an email.