The continuation of the Iran-Israel conflict and rising tensions in the Middle East could help russia in war with Ukraine.
According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the rise in oil prices after the Israeli strikes on Iran could increase russia's oil revenues and improve russia's ability to support its military efforts.
According to the report, Brent crude futures prices rose more than five percent to USD 74.47 per barrel on June 13 after Israel's attack on Iran. At the same time, russia's oil and gas revenues accounted for about 30 percent of total federal revenues in 2024.
Previously, analysts noted that tightening economic sanctions are increasingly preventing russia from supporting a prolonged military effort in Ukraine. And russian leader vladimir putin has expressed concern about falling oil prices, suggesting that any decline in oil prices would likely risk destabilizing the russian economy.
“Russia could use sudden spikes in oil prices to weather economic hardship and finance a protracted war in Ukraine, assuming oil prices remain high (e.g., above USD 60 per barrel),” the report notes.
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