ISW explains why reducing US aid to Ukraine dangerous

A reduction in US military aid to Ukraine will only strengthen russian dictator vladimir putin's belief in the possibility of victory and will not contribute to a peaceful resolution of the war. This is stated in an analytical report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As experts note, "Washington's indecisive position will give Moscow greater advantages on the battlefield and strengthen its belief in the possibility of victory."

The basis for this assessment was the statement of US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, made on June 10. He reported that in 2026 the United States intends to reduce spending on weapons purchases for Ukraine. At the same time, Hegseth spoke in favor of a "peaceful settlement of the war through negotiations," but, as ISW notes, his speech did not provide a clear vision of what victory means or how to achieve it.

Analysts emphasize that putin’s so-called “theory of victory” is based on the calculation that the russian army will be able to advance slowly while Ukrainian forces are exhausted and the West reduces support.

“Western military assistance, especially that which only the United States can provide quickly and in sufficient volume, remains critical to the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front. This is what may force putin to reconsider his theory of victory,” the report says.

The ISW emphasizes: only noticeable shifts on the battlefield are capable of changing russian calculations and forcing Moscow to sit down at the table for real negotiations.

“Reducing US assistance to Ukraine threatens to give russia greater advantages on the battlefield and is likely to embolden putin to continue his war and strengthen his belief that russia can conquer Ukraine, which is incompatible with the stated goal of US President Donald Trump to ensure lasting peace in Ukraine,” the ISW analysts concluded.

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