Britain faces a "new era of threat" as drones, artificial intelligence and other technologies change the nature of warfare more fundamentally than ever before, according to a draft of the British government's strategic defence review to be presented on Monday, The Guardian reported.
The 130-page document, written by three advisers to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will warn of an "imminent and pressing" danger from russia and is expected to draw heavily on lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.
But it will also focus on China, which will be described not as an enemy but as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge” which is sometimes willing to engage with moscow, and two smaller “regional disruptors” – Iran and North Korea.
The review paints a picture of the most heightened military and security threat since the end of the Cold War, although it does not suggest that the intensity of moscow’s cyber and subversive activities means the UK is already drifting towards war with russia.
The analysis, prepared by a panel of experts led by former NATO secretary general George Robertson, is not expected to include any new commitments to defence spending. Instead, it will confirm a pledge made by Starmer in February to increase the defence budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and to 3% in the next parliament.
But the review is likely to be used to justify a significant increase in medium-term defence spending, which is expected to be agreed at a NATO summit later in June and could amount to more than GBP 50 billion in real terms.
The review is also expected to raise the issue of the size of the British army, amid reports that the MoD and Treasury are arguing over whether to include a commitment to increase the planned 73,000 troops.
Figures published this week show that army numbers have fallen to their lowest level since Napoleon and even earlier: as of April 1, the number of soldiers undergoing continuous military training was 70,860, down 2.3% on the previous year.
The commitment to increase the size of the army by 5,000, if successful, would cost around GBP 2.5 billion a year in additional pay, housing, equipment and other resources. But if successful, it would help the armed forces meet a commitment that is likely to grow in the coming years.
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