Massive shelling of Ukrainian cities, aggressive rhetoric, and pessimism of Western allies are part of the kremlin's strategy to undermine the fighting spirit of Ukrainians and make the world believe in russia's superiority. This is stated in a new report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"The Kremlin is attempting to leverage large strike packages and increasingly aggressive rhetorical efforts to distract from the Russian military's poor performance during this current stage of the war," analysts note.
ISW recalled that since the beginning of the year, russia has carried out seven of the largest missile and drone attacks during the entire full-scale invasion. The kremlin is simultaneously spreading messages about the need for concessions from Ukraine, but their essence has not changed in three years - russia continues to demand recognition of the annexations.
According to experts, these attempts are aimed at undermining the determination of Western countries to continue military assistance to Ukraine. Analysts stressed that the withdrawal of support from allies remains russia's only real bet on victory.
In addition, ISW notes growing problems in the russian army: huge losses, dependence on poorly trained infantry, and a shortage of equipment. The russian defense industry is not able to compensate for losses, and the kremlin is trying to compensate for the shortage of labor at the expense of migrants.
In plain language: "The Kremlin may be reassessing its ability to sustain a long-term war effort and appears to be reprioritizing its efforts to convince the West to preemptively concede to Russian demands in light of Russia's economic and military constraints," the report says.
ISW believes that Moscow is intensifying information pressure precisely at those moments when the West is considering key decisions regarding Ukraine. Analysts are sure that putin is trying to create an atmosphere of hopelessness in order to break support for Kyiv.
"Russia is also platforming its partnerships with adversarial countries such as the People's Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and North Korea to push back on the appearance of diplomatic isolation and posture itself as a country with powerful allies who are willing to stand against the West," ISW emphasized.
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