The Center for Geopolitics, created by investment bank JPMorganChase, has released a report on the prospects for ending russia’s war against Ukraine. According to it, the war has “entered the endgame,” and Ukraine will be forced to accept a deal with russia that will freeze hostilities, but not lead to a comprehensive peace settlement. The deal is expected by the end of the second quarter of 2025.
This is stated in the report of the Center for Geopolitics JPMorganChase.
“With Europe running out of weapons, Ukraine running out of military, the United States running out of patience, and transatlantic unity on the brink, President Zelenskyy will likely be forced to accept a deal with russia that will freeze hostilities but not lead to a comprehensive peace settlement,” the report states.
It is also indicated that at the current pace of the offensive, russia will control all of Ukraine in about 118 years, so russian leader vladimir putin will try to conclude an agreement that will be "favorable for his overall goal - to eventually control Kyiv."
"2025 has always been a year of negotiations, and now the endgame has come," the report says.
It is noted that an "imperfect agreement" is expected by the end of the second quarter of 2025, that is, by July.
Thus, analysts at the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics see 4 possible scenarios with different estimates of their probability, each of which has parallels with other countries today. The lowest probability of 15% is given to the best - "South Korea", as well as the worst - "Belarus".
The "South Korea" scenario assumes that Ukraine will receive neither NATO membership nor the full restoration of Ukrainian territory. However, if he can secure the entry of European forces into the country, backed by an American security promise of aid and intelligence support, then the 80 percent of Ukraine still under Kyiv’s control will be on a much more stable, prosperous, and democratic trajectory.
Meanwhile, the “Belarus” scenario will occur if the United States abandons Ukraine, Europe takes no action, russia stands firm on its maximalist demands, and seeks Ukraine’s complete surrender, turning it into a vassal state of Moscow.
The next scenario, “Israel,” which analysts predict is 20 percent likely, could occur if Ukraine has strong and sustained military and economic support but without a significant foreign military presence, giving Ukraine the space to “turn itself into a fortress.” But war is always on the horizon, it is predicted.
And the most likely scenario, the center calls "Georgia" - 50%. According to it, in the absence of both foreign troops and strong military support, Ukraine will experience constant instability, slowed growth and recovery, a decrease in foreign support over time, and the actual disruption of its membership in the EU and NATO, with a gradual drift back into russia's orbit.
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