Dragon Capital company forecasts a decline in inflation in the summer of this year.
This is stated in the company's message, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"According to our forecast, annual inflation will start to decline in June-July against the background of the continued weakening of fundamental pressure and a high base of comparison in the food segment in the second half of last year. We forecast a slowdown in consumer inflation to 8.1% y/y by the end of 2025 in the "ongoing war" scenario and to 9-10% y/y in the "truce" scenario," the message says.
In April 2025, consumer prices increased by 15.1% y/y, accelerating from 12.0% in December 2024 and the lowest rate since the beginning of the full-scale invasion — 3.3% — in March last year.
Despite the acceleration in annual inflation, certain indicators indicate a gradual weakening of fundamental inflationary pressures, in particular due to the exhaustion of the effect of increasing business costs for electricity.
This pressure is expected to continue to weaken, although imbalances in the labor market will contribute to the growth of enterprises' labor costs.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Dragon Capital expects the National Bank of Ukraine to return to a controlled and gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of the year.
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