US intelligence has concluded that russian president vladimir putin may have changed his approach in the war against Ukraine, focusing on shorter-term tasks instead of completely capturing the country.
This was reported by CNN, citing unnamed senior American and European officials.
According to the sources, putin may now seek to consolidate control over already occupied territories and support russia's economy, which is under pressure. Such a revision of goals probably occurred after the Kremlin realized that the implementation of the original plan - capturing all of Ukraine - turned out to be more difficult than expected.
"I think he may be thinking ... about what a reasonable goal can be set in the near term," the publication quotes a senior Western intelligence official.
CNN notes that putin's new assessments fuel hopes of the Trump administration for the possibility of progress towards a peace agreement. At the same time, the US acknowledges that the risks remain high.
“It all really depends on what the US is willing to offer so that he can not just declare victory domestically, but really feel that he has achieved something that is worth a significant pause, and then perhaps resume the fight at some point later,” one official said.
US intelligence also warns that even if russia agrees to a temporary cessation of hostilities, Moscow could use it as a pause before a new phase of the war. This is also indicated by putin’s constant appeal to historical claims to parts of Ukrainian lands.
Another senior European official indicated that the Kremlin may resort to partial limitation of goals in order to improve relations with Washington. However, according to him, russia “clearly has not abandoned its maximalist military goals.”
"(The Kremlin hopes that improving relations - ed.) will divert attention after a tactical pause, and then they will be able to use a combination of military, economic, informational, and political tools to achieve all of putin's goals in Ukraine and beyond," he concluded.
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