The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumes an increase in tariffs for housing and utility services next year.
This is stated in the materials of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
"A further increase in excise duties and a gradual adjustment of tariffs for housing and utility services are assumed in the coming years, however, the timing and parameters of their revision are an area of uncertainty and a risk for the inflation forecast," the materials state.
The forecast takes into account the adopted legislative changes regarding the further gradual increase in excise duty rates on tobacco products until 2028, the largest of which is foreseen in 2025, as well as their conversion into euros.
It is expected that the current tariffs for gas, heating and hot water supply will not be revised this year.
However, the difficult situation in the energy sector and fiscal consolidation will likely lead to a gradual adjustment of these tariffs in the coming years.
In particular, it is assumed that they will gradually be brought to economically reasonable levels starting in 2026.
However, uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of energy tariff adjustments poses a significant risk to the inflation forecast.
Further postponement of decisions on their increase will lead to lower inflation, but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state-owned energy companies.
At the same time, the risks of instability in the energy market will increase, the investment potential of the industry will deteriorate, and price pressure will only be postponed for the future.
In contrast, a sufficiently rapid and significant increase in the cost of energy carriers to eliminate imbalances in the energy sector will increase inflationary pressure in the relevant period and will necessitate an increase in subsidies for the population.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the updated memorandum between Ukraine and the IMF states that the Ukrainian government may resume a gradual increase in tariffs for energy and utilities before the end of a full-scale war.
The Cabinet of Ministers increased the electricity tariff for the population by 60% from June 1, 2024, to UAH 4.32 per kWh.
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