The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 by 3.1%. The forecast has worsened compared to January of this year (3.6%).
NBU Chairman Andrii Pyshnyi has stated this at a briefing.
According to the NBU forecast, in 2026 the economy will grow by 3.7% (previous forecast – 4.0%), in 2027 GDP will increase by 3.9% (previous forecast – 4.2%). As the NBU Chairman noted, in the first quarter of 2025 economic growth remained subdued, in particular due to the destruction of gas infrastructure and the resulting increase in gas import needs.
"Despite some revival of the labor market, a significant restraining factor, according to business surveys, was also the war-related shortage of qualified workers," he said.
According to him, the escalation of trade conflicts in the world has not yet affected the Ukrainian economy, but will continue to hinder its recovery.
"Tariff wars are likely to lead to a certain weakening of external demand for certain Ukrainian export goods, although agricultural products will remain in demand even in the conditions of a cooling global economy," he said.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine's GDP growth in 2024 slowed to 2.9% compared to 5.5% in 2023. The GDP growth forecast included in the 2025 budget is 2.7% per year. In March, the IMF updated the baseline scenario, according to which russia's war against Ukraine will end at the end of 2025.
This scenario assumes that Ukraine's economy will grow by 2-3% in 2025 and accelerate to 4.5% in 2026.
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