The growth in consumer prices slightly exceeded the National Bank's forecast published in the Inflation Report for January 2025.
This is stated in the NBU's message, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
In March, the growth in prices for raw products significantly accelerated in annual terms. Fruits and vegetables, flour and cereals rose more rapidly under the influence of the residual effects of last year's low harvests and an increase in the cost of their storage.
Due to the worsening epizootic situation in the world and in Ukraine and against the background of stable exports, prices for eggs, pork, chicken and sugar approached the level of trading partner countries.
The acceleration of inflation was largely due to the residual effects of last year's poor harvests and a further increase in prices for excisable products.
On the other hand, such price dynamics were also determined by fundamental factors – high business costs for energy supply and labor, as well as stable consumer demand.
Administratively regulated prices increased by 19.0%.
The faster growth in the cost of excisable products was influenced by both the further growth in production costs and price adjustments due to the test implementation of the E-excise tax, as well as the increase and conversion into euros of the excise tax on tobacco products, which came into effect at the end of March.
Pressure from production costs led to an acceleration in the growth of prices for pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment.
At the same time, the reduction in marginal mark-ups for certain medical devices in March did not affect their cost.
As before, the moratorium on increasing tariffs for certain housing and communal services for the population restrained administrative inflation.
The growth rate of fuel prices slowed down to 9.9%.
In March, fuel price growth slowed compared to February due to cheaper imports, logistics optimization, and sufficient inventories.
At the same time, the gradual growth in demand and the strengthening of the euro exerted upward pressure on prices.
Inflation accelerated as expected, but the inflationary momentum is gradually being exhausted.
Monthly inflation dynamics, adjusted for seasonality, already show signs of weakening price pressure.
The arrival of a new crop, an improvement in the energy supply situation, reduced pressure from the labor market, cheaper oil, as well as the NBU's monetary policy measures will contribute to a reversal of the inflationary trend in the summer.
Inflation is expected to slow to a single-digit level by the end of the year and continue to move towards the 5% target.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in March 2025, inflation accelerated to 14.6% in annual terms.
In monthly terms, prices increased by 1.5%.
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