In March, business gave positive assessments of its own economic activity, demonstrating flexibility, optimism, and adaptability to difficult conditions, despite the challenges of a full-scale war.
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, with the exception of a forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The drivers of the positive impact on the expectations of enterprises of all sectors were stable consumer demand, increased production, receipt of international financial assistance, stabilization of energy supply, as well as the seasonal factor.
At the same time, the increasing shelling of critically important facilities, exchange rate and inflation expectations, and a shortage of qualified personnel remained restraining factors.
In March 2025, the BAEI exceeded the neutral level for the first time in 11 months and was 51.8 compared to 46.9 in February 2025 (52.0 in March 2024).
Trade enterprises assessed their performance results most optimistically among all sectors due to sufficient supply of goods and stable domestic demand: the sectoral index in March was 54.0 (in February 2025 - 49.2, in March 2024 - 55.1).
Trade companies expected an increase in the volume of trade turnover, the volume of purchases of goods for sale, and were also more optimistic than in February about the balance of goods for sale.
Respondents, as before, expected a decrease in trade margins.
Industrial enterprises improved their optimistic assessments of the results of their current activities due to stable consumer demand and further increase in production: the sectoral index in March increased to 53.1 compared to 50.2 in February 2025 and 51.0 in March 2024.
Respondents strengthened their expectations for an increase in the volume of manufactured products, new orders for products, including export ones, were tuned to an increase in inventories of raw materials and materials, and also softened their negative assessments of the volume of work in progress.
At the same time, pessimistic assessments of the balance of finished goods increased.
Construction enterprises significantly improved their expectations for current economic results, taking into account the seasonal factor: the sectoral index in March increased to 52.9 compared to 44.7 in February 2025 (in March 2024 - 53.5).
Builders significantly strengthened expectations for an increase in the volume of purchases of raw materials and materials and, unlike the previous four months, expected an increase in the volume of construction and the volume of new orders.
Respondents were set for a significant increase in the volume of purchases of contractor services against the background of weakening estimates of the growth of their cost and softening estimates of their availability.
Service enterprises significantly softened their expectations, but assessed their economic prospects the most restrained among all sectors, given the shortage of qualified personnel and increasing production costs: the sectoral index was 48.8 in March (in February 2025 - 42.2, in March 2024 - 50.6).
For the first time in 10 months, respondents expected an increase in the volume of services provided and for the first time in 11 months, an increase in the volume of services in the process of implementation, and also significantly softened their assessments of the volume of new orders for services.
The surveyed industrial and service enterprises weakened their expectations for an increase in purchase prices, as well as prices / tariffs for their own products / services, while construction and trade companies maintained high expectations for an increase in prices.
Employment assessments improved somewhat.
Construction enterprises are set to increase the number of personnel, industrialists weakened their negative assessments and came close to the neutral level.
At the same time, heads of trade and service enterprises slightly strengthened their expectations for a decrease in the total number of employees.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from March 5 to 24, 2025. 529 enterprises participated in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 43.1% are industrial companies, 26.5% are service companies, 25.3% are trade companies, 5.1% are construction companies; 29.7% of respondents are large enterprises, 27.4% are medium-sized enterprises, 42.9% are small.
32.3% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.1% carry out only export operations, 17.4% carry out only import operations, 41.2% do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly indices of business activity expectations are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and a composite one, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. An index value of 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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