Economic experts predicted a 2% drop in GDP if the war in Ukraine continues until 2026 and becomes more intense. This is the most negative scenario.
This is stated in the Memorandum with the IMF.
The scenario models what will happen if the war continues until mid-2026.
It is assumed that under the worst-case scenario, GDP will fall by 2% in 2025 and by 0.5% in 2026. The prolongation of the war will lead to fewer refugees returning to Ukraine than planned under the baseline scenario.
The total financing gap in the negative scenario is estimated at USD 162.9 billion, which is USD 14.1 billion higher than the baseline forecast (USD 148.8 billion).
According to the worst-case scenario developed by the IMF, military support may be reduced, which will complicate the already difficult security situation, which will worsen economic indicators, and the financial deficit in some areas will become even more noticeable.
"Reform fatigue and challenges to political consensus are vulnerabilities regardless of the evolution of the war," IMF analysts say.
The pessimistic scenario assumes that due to weak export indicators, the imbalance in the foreign exchange market will reappear and will not disappear for a long time.
The IMF notes that Ukraine actively responded to economic challenges during the war, balancing between operational measures and social needs. For further stability, it is necessary to increase tax revenues, attract external financing, strengthen monetary policy and optimize state spending.
We will remind, according to media reports, russian troops are preparing for a new offensive in the coming weeks in order to maximize pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the kremlin's position in the ceasefire negotiations. They could last from 6 to 9 months, analysts say.
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