The administration of US President Donald Trump expects Ukraine to sign a new minerals deal soon.
According to the authors of The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the new agreement will give Washington broad powers over Ukraine's economy, but the problem is that the Ukrainian side will probably not be able to accept these terms.
The publication noted that the mismatch in expectations threatens to set the US and Ukraine up for a new round of conflict over what Trump can get in exchange for supporting Kyiv in the war with russia.
"Ukrainians cannot give up all their economic sovereignty just like that," said lawyer Daniel Bilak.
In this regard, the publication recalled that in early February, Trump said that he would not be averse to obtaining Ukrainian minerals, and now the matter has reached the point that his desire has grown into a US plan to profit from Ukrainian economic projects in the field of metals, oil, gas and other natural resources, as well as infrastructure projects, including ports and pipelines.
The 55-page project, a copy of which the publication reviewed, is aimed at recovering billions of dollars in aid received from the US from Ukraine. Trump believes that the US has spent USD 350 billion on Ukraine, which significantly exceeds Ukraine's estimates of about USD 100 billion.
The new draft agreement sent to Kyiv proposes creating a limited liability company registered in Delaware, called the "US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund". The White House presented it as mutually beneficial and a way to strengthen ties.
"The minerals deal gives Ukraine the opportunity to build a strong economic relationship with the United States that is the foundation for long-term security and peace. The deal will help make Ukraine prosperous and reflects the past and present US commitments to Ukraine," said National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt.
Ukraine has reacted cautiously and is still working on an official response.
The publication noted that the new draft also lacks the security guarantees that Ukraine sought, but instead raises the issue of whether the country should return all the money spent on military aid to the United States. The WSJ emphasized that this issue was not in the previous version of the deal.
Analysts noted that many of the details of the deal will be difficult for Ukraine to accept. For example, the Fund will have the right to choose over all natural resources and infrastructure projects in Ukraine for which the country is looking for investors, both new and existing.
These projects will pay profits into a fund run by a board of directors made up of three US and two Ukrainian representatives, essentially giving Washington control over the fund’s management. The fund’s projects will have to avoid exporting critical metals to US strategic rivals.
The document says the money from the fund will go to repay aid the US provided to Ukraine after russia’s invasion. At the same time, the document does not say a word about how much money will go to rebuilding Ukraine itself.
In addition, if Kyiv wants to find other investors for its natural resources, it will first have to present the project to the fund’s board. If the fund refuses to take it, Ukraine will not be able to offer other potential investors better economic terms.
Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, said it was unlikely that Trump had a plan in place in case Ukraine did not sign the deal. "The administration seems to be improvising when it comes to supporting Ukraine. It intends to put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians to do whatever the Trump team wants. But supporting Ukraine is not on this administration's agenda, as it was with Biden," she said.
"If Ukraine rejects this version of the deal, Washington will have to negotiate with Kyiv about a new one. And after Trump admitted that Russia is dragging out the talks, senior Trump administration officials are trying not to appear too pro-Kremlin," the publication concluded.
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