Europe urgently needs to increase its own defense capabilities and prepare for independent security operations without U.S. support due to the risk of a new war.
Political scientist and foreign policy expert Hlib Ostapenko stated this in his analytical article "The Future War is Not a Mirage, but a Reality".
According to him, the recent events at the Munich Security Conference and the subsequent meeting of European leaders in Paris on February 17 demonstrated the fragility of the continent's current security system. In particular, Donald Trump's coming to power led to a deeper breakdown in transatlantic relations than expected - the U.S. announced its intention to refocus on its own interests and Asia.
The expert emphasized that the U.S. and russia have already started negotiations in Riyadh without the participation of the EU and Ukraine. According to available information, not only the issues of the war in Ukraine are being discussed, but also the partial lifting of sanctions, energy exports, and the distribution of influence in various regions.
According to Ostapenko, even if an "interim peace" is achieved in the near future, this does not guarantee a long-term resolution of the conflict. He predicts that by 2029, when Trump's second term ends, russia may try to attack again.
To prevent such a scenario, the expert recommends that Europe increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, create a centralized mechanism for making security decisions, unify the military-industrial complex, and prepare for security operations without the participation of the United States.
"If the continent does not take responsibility for its own defense, the risk of a new round of aggression - whether against Ukraine or in the Baltics - will remain more than real," Ostapenko emphasized.
As previously reported, Ukraine has proposed the concept of creating a "European Joint Force" capable of effectively resisting russian aggression.
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